Improve Your Decision Making With These 7 Mental Models


Improve Your Decision Making With These 7 Mental Models

             1) Probabilistic Thinking

Combining new information with existing odds will improve your decision making accuracy.

Learn how to predict the likelihood of any specific outcome using statistics and probabilities.

 2) Second Order Thinking

Stop focusing solely on immediate consequences.

It is important to consider the second & third order effects of any action.

“The best math you can learn is how to calculate the future cost of your current decisions”

3) Hanlon’s razor

Instead of assuming the worst intention in the actions of others, learn to give people the benefit of doubt.

Understanding this model makes you less judgmental and more rational.

4) Occum’s razor

“Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.”

This problem-solving model works by eliminating unlikely options.

Find simple solutions, use simple theories.

5) Run Uphill

Naval says:

“If you are to decide between two relatively equal choices, choose the path more painful in the short term.”

The path with short term pain has long term GAIN linked with it.

Practice delayed gratification.

6) Inversion

Use this system to solve problems by thinking backwards.

To know how to succeed, make a list of how to fail.

To know how to create a good life, write what a bad life looks like.

Inversion helps you avoid obvious mistakes.

7) When in doubt, say NO

If you are debating whether you should accept a job // marry someone // move to a city // partner on a business...

The answer is no - don’t bother with pros and cons.

Say YES only when you are very certain.

The best way to learn mental models is to develop a reading habit.